Chapter 02A: A Nightmare Ecology? Or, A Question for Medea?
“And these universes passed away in their turn. But infinite space remained, peopled with worlds, and stars, and souls, and suns; and time went on forever. For there can be neither end nor beginning.”
This essay is part of an ongoing series by The Nostomodern Review on Modernism and its future in the 21st Century and beyond. Each essay forms parts of the Nostomodernist project: a quasi-scholarly attempt at reevaluating what it means to be Modern in contemporary times, to possibly reconcile the gap between Modernism and its supposed successors, and to speculate on new trajectories within the current era of history via a mythic reading of Modernity itself.
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Medea Will Slay Her Children
The primary goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement is to maintain global temperature increase to 1.5°C by 2100. The first half of this subchapter will feature data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s 2018 Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) and the World Wide Fund’s 2020 Living Planet Report.
The former has been criticised by some as being conservative in its estimates of climate change and its effects. But the reasoning behind their citation here is precisely because they form a conservative baseline with which the situation might be assessed: that is to say, if this is conservative, everything else is at least a nightmare.
Furthermore, since this chapter uses aggregated data from multiple studies featured in the SR15, it becomes more difficult to dispute findings based on individual methodologies and technical aspects—we are interested in general trend as ratified by multiple groups.
These statistics are not comprehensive; to learn more about the climate, the IPCC shares its assessment and special reports on its websites and so does the WWF. However, we need a common picture for what the world might resemble at the end of this century.
There are several climate scenarios for the 21st Century, but as of right now:
We have undergone many changes in the past few years. There have been bigger storms, longer heat waves, hotter summers, colder winters, and now plastic has been found in the lowest reaches of the ocean and in the wombs of pregnant mothers. And to think: we are only 1.1°C above pre-Industrial levels.
We remain far-flung from the doomsday scenarios of 3°C and higher; until you recognise that current estimates have already envisioned this happening earlier than 2100, and that based on current policies, 1.5°C will become untenable soon. Let us look at some data for comparison:
At 1.5°C above pre-Industrial levels,
70% to 90% of coral reefs will be bleached. (high to very high confidence)5
350.2 ± 158.8 million people will be affected globally by drought (medium confidence)6
6% insects, 4% vertebrates, 8% plants will lose more than 50% of their natural range (medium confidence)7
0.26m to 0.77m of Global Mean Sea Level Rise (GMSLR) will increase. (medium confidence)8
128 to 143 million people will be exposed to rising sea levels (medium to high confidence)9
17% to 44% of permafrost will be reduced; irreversible loss of stored carbon.10
10% of global maize crop will be reduced; risk of malnutrition and food shortages.11
At 2.0°C above pre-Industrial levels,
99% of coral reefs will be bleached. (high to very high confidence)12
410.7 ± 213.5 million people will be affected globally by severe drought (medium confidence)13
18% insects, 8% vertebrates, 16% plants will lose more than 50% of their natural range (medium confidence)14
0.35m to 0.93m of Global Mean Sea Level Rise (GMSLR) will increase. (medium confidence)15
141 to 151 million will be exposed to rising sea levels (moderate to high confidence)16
28% to 53% of permafrost will be reduced; irreversible loss of stored carbon.17
15% of global maize crops will be reduced; risk of malnutrition and food shortages.18
While the IPCC’s SR15 Report does not include the respective 3.0°C predictions for these variables, it can be assumed with due confidence that the double to triple increases seen with a 1.5°C to 2.0°C jump will engender at least similar, if not grossly worse, proportional results as per a degree increase from 2.0°C to 3.0°C.
At 3.0°C above pre-Industrial levels,
Potential for an abrupt increase in tree fraction in Tundra biomes (low confidence)19
Potential for permafrost collapse (low confidence)20
Potential tipping point leading to pronounced forest dieback (medium confidence)21; savannafication of the Amazon Rainforest.22
Potential tipping point at 3°C–4°C for significant dieback of boreal forest (low confidence)23
Potential tipping point for collapse of maize crop in some regions (low confidence); drastic reductions in maize crop globally, especially in Africa (high confidence)24
There are other variables to mention: ocean acidification with pH rates lowering over the past 30 years25, the melting of Arctic Sea ice at a faster rate than predicted in all models except worst-case scenarios26, the effects of temperature on livestock27, massive biome transformations28, shrinking phytoplankton and cyanobacteria populations29, the endangered lifestyles of indigenous and subsistence farmers30 as well as invasive species spread by novel migrations31.
Not to mention that by 2050, global population will have reached 9.7 billion people32, with population momentum already unstoppable even if global fertility were to decrease by two-thirds of its current rate33. By 2100, there will be 10.9 billion human beings on this planet simultaneously.34
But this chapter should not convince you of climate change or the problems ahead; such things are already in effect. The purpose of these figures is to establish the scenario moving forward: this is only one possible crisis—it is still “too early to say” what might happen. This is only one possible world at the end of time.
A Stone Laying Beneath
The Inertial Leviathan rests at the bottom of the earth; its shape taken from the visage of Ouroboros—a beastly hauntology, a self-devouring culture in circular motion. This is the last great Body With Organs: the Inertial Leviathan is the world at the end of time.
The end of capitalism is the end of civilisation as we know it. It would mean the end of authority, the end of power; the end of patriarchy, the end of hegemony—it is the world at the end of ourselves.
We inherited this world in history; we exist as a material development—one state of affairs succeeds with the next. The language we inherit is a continuation of a language game from the past; the terms in which we speak are contingent to a historical purpose. A radical break from capitalism is a radical break from history; and the necessary steps to save this planet are likewise radical breaks—we have never built armageddon before, nor have we ever found a way out of it.
To return to pre-Industrial temperatures is to immediately collapse. The planet will take centuries to recover; climate change is still guaranteed; however, the alternative is catastrophe. We should take it seriously, no? And do what is necessary to save ourselves from sheer armageddon.
Old Habits, Old World
But the Inertial Leviathan will not let us go: it rests too heavily in our minds and its hunger fills our dreams. As Mark Fisher quotes, “it is easier to imagine an end to the world than an end to capitalism”; although we may soon be forced to contemplate such an event, either quietly or with a bang.
Economic theory assumes scarcity; scarcity necessitates choice—we have limited resources and unlimited wants. At a certain economic cost, however, it becomes inefficient to produce at a certain output. Hence we must either reduce output or stop producing altogether.
When a firm ceases to make economic profit, it can simply choose to close its business or declare itself insolvent to the banks. It may lay off its workers, try to pay off its debts, and the owners can do something else with their lives. This happens all the time. But a global economy is not as simple; its debts may be too large to pay.
It is possible that in the far future economic revenue will equal economic cost. As time goes on, economic growth will eventually become tangent to zero; the global economy will become homogenised and comparative advantage will cease between countries due to equalled access to technology and manpower.
But we have not reached that point—economic growth is still possible. Europe and America had their turns on the pony ride; it is now time for Africa and Asia. The unfortunate state of affairs is, however, that the planet is already producing at cost; the scale is simply too large for individual firms (or countries) to notice yet. We have no more time.
Yet things take time to happen; things take time to notice; the breaking point for a business is when it becomes unable to recoup its cost or pay back its rent. The breaking point for the global economy is complete ecological collapse.
At least in theory it will be. Business owners can calculate their profit based on revenue and cost—collapse is usually forewarned and thus closure can be enacted before. But while a rational business owner may see the early signs and thus act to escape fast, the closure of one business is not the end of future businesses nor the end to capital itself.
New businesses can be opened; lost capital can be recouped; but the global economy has no second planet to fall back on and no new fossils to burn. The old habit is there; the old habit is hard to break; the Inertial Leviathan rests at the bottom of the world—it will rest there till the end of it.
On Leviathans
For Hobbes, the Leviathan is sovereign. It is the commonwealth, it is the state. It is immutable; it is absolute. But when we speak of the Inertial Leviathan, we speak in post-Hobbesian terms: the Leviathan is no longer the state itself, but the notion of the state, by which it has infiltrated our every dream, our every world, our every desire—we can no longer dream without it.
Likewise we cannot help but dream in terms of capital. Even a rejection of capitalism—a complete anarchist revolution—would only be post-capital in nature, regardless of its outcome. We cannot forget what we have seen; we cannot return to where we have been.
At the intersection of language, culture and history we are held by Inertial Leviathan and its desire to survive. It is difficult to imagine a world without the systems we have built; to do otherwise would require a new language entirely, for the words we currently use would no longer suffice to describe it.
But the hope for ourselves is to raise the cultural momentum to move it. Unless acted on by an equivalent force, the Leviathan will remain unmoved and unchanged; we will only be able to dream in one way.
Cultural Ouroboros
The Inertial Leviathan takes the shape of Cultural Ouroboros—it is the most efficient form to take. We witness it in the revival of past culture; we observe it in the incorporation of revolutionary struggles into the narrative of capitalism itself; the Inertial Leviathan will assimilate anything that could change it.
It is what some Postmodernists would call ironic self-awareness: an inescapable condition of circular reference, where nothing novel can occur. Everything is done in reference or with historicity to something prior; only pastiche and parody can be achieved in perpetual hauntology for the past. Sincerity is either impossible or naive; a global revolution can never occur—such revolutions can no longer surprise us anymore.
The Crisis of the 21st Century is thus the collapse of the Inertial Leviathan—it collapses under its own weight. The signatories of the 2015 Paris Agreement will be too late to change their ways; public momentum is not strong enough. Techno-Dionysus will not solve our problems; the solutions will come too late.
The earth will be destroyed by global temperatures above 3°C; the Sixth Extinction will begin and end. The Neoleviathans will rise up in a global war-against-all for the few resources left. The bough has broken; the cradle has rocked; humanity and its children will fall to the earth, or abandon it entirely, and Medea will have her revenge.
But in the next world something new will occur: a radical break will form in the passage of human history. Jörmungandr will release its tail, sending it crashing to the earth, heralding the last days of Ragnarök.
And the world at the end of time—a final gesture of modernity—will surprise us once more and for the last time.
In the blink of eternity; the earth abides for tomorrow.
Copyright © Thomas J. Pellarin, 2021. All rights reserved.
WWF (2020) Living Planet Report 2020 - Bending the curve of biodiversity loss. Almond, R.E.A., Grooten M. and Petersen, T. (Eds). WWF, Gland, Switzerland, 56.
Ibid, 64.
Ibid, 12.
Ibid.
O. Hoegh-Guldberg, D. Jacob, M. Taylor, M. Bindi, S. Brown, I. Camilloni, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, J. Guiot, Y. Hijioka, S. Mehrotra, A. Payne, S. I. Seneviratne, A. Thomas, R. Warren, G. Zhou, 2018, Impacts of 1.5ºC global warming on natural and human systems supplementary material. In: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press, 248.
Ibid, 247.
Ibid.
Ibid, 178.
Ibid, 249.
Ibid, 264.
Ibid.
Ibid, 248.
Ibid, 247.
Ibid.
Ibid, 207.
Ibid, 249.
Ibid, 264.
Ibid.
Ibid, 264.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Ibid.
Hoegh-Guldberg, O., R. Cai, E.S. Poloczanska, P.G. Brewer, S. Sundby, K. Hilmi, V.J. Fabry, and S. Jung, 2014: The Ocean. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Barros, V.R., C.B. Field, D.J. Dokken, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1655.
Schuur, T., 2019: Permafrost and the Global Carbon Cycle. Arctic Report Card 2019, J. Richter-Menge, M. L. Druckenmiller, and M. Jeffries, Eds., http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card.
O. Hoegh-Guldberg, D. Jacob, M. Taylor, M. Bindi, S. Brown, I. Camilloni, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, J. Guiot, Y. Hijioka, S. Mehrotra, A. Payne, S. I. Seneviratne, A. Thomas, R. Warren, G. Zhou, 2018, Impacts of 1.5ºC global warming on natural and human systems supplementary material. In: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press, 237.
Ibid, 179.
Ibid, 226.
Ibid, 183.
Ibid, 218.
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/423), 5.
Ibid, 8.
Ibid, 5.